Backpass: The first cut is
Let's reboot Backpass with one of my favorite off-season activities: roster building.
Many moons ago, when I still had a mild suggestion of hair upon my head and Don Garber was assigning players to teams via ‘a random envelope draw’, I started a column Monday-morning-quarterbacking the Rapids last match 48 to 72 hours prior, which I called ‘Backpass.’ It was snarky or whimsical and filled with pop culture references and underused Opta terms - all of which was an attempt to arrive at something new and fun and different in an American soccer column, or at least something that might exist in another form but had never before been specifically directed towards the Colorado Rapids and their fans. Heck, barely anyone wanted to write about the Rapids at all, let along bring tactics and stats analysis to the fray. Nobody minded that I was an off-brand Matt Doyle, or an off-off-brand David Foster Wallace, or an un-funny Pablo Maurer, or a grammatically clunky Grant Wahl. It was fun, and it was about the Rapids.
Backpass would stick around for the next five seasons and at four different websites before I gave it a rest in 2019. I tried some other things, and I’ve done some other writing, but really, Backpass is what I know best, and well…
Backpass is back, here and for a long while (I hope) at the Holding the High Line website. As long as Matt doesn’t fire me (I don’t think Matt’ll fire me. I don’t think Matt *can* fire me, to be honest.) , I will not be moved. I’m staying till Vizzini comes. I am waaaaiting for … Vizzziiiiiinnii.
You can expect the usual here: Star Wars references, off-piste rambling, gifs of the Rapids failing to close down space, obsessive tactical rambling, a use of advanced metrics that soccer Luddites will decry as heresy, and the occasional hewing to the regular norms of standardized soccer journalism. I really try and avoid that last bit, and usually only when I am cold, tired, slightly drunk, and/or expected to produce a time-sensitive article or recap.
Contract expiration: Who to keep, who to cut
Now that our Rapids have been duly eliminated from the playoffs (“We made the playoffs!”;“Shhh, Rabbi, almost everybody made the playoffs this year.”), the first set of decisions which Rapids GM Pádraig Smith is tasked with is deciding which players with expired contracts ought to be brought back for 2021. Let’s go through all of them, one by one, alphabetically.
Note that because the MLS Players Union did not release salary data for 2020, we’ll be using the 2019 data. I will also look at a couple of players for whom their contract status is unclear because I could find no press releases or news on the matter. Finally, the standard MLS contract includes a team option for the year following. Some of these expiring contracts include a ‘club option’ with a small salary bump, some do not. If I know there’s a ‘club option’, I mentioned it. Otherwise, it’s an implied ‘maybe’.
Lalas Abubakar
2019 Salary: $144,938 Contract Status: Unknown
Age: 25 Minutes Played: 1,514 G+ overall*: +1.23
Keep or Cut?: Keep
Abubakar, despite a few notable bonehead plays, (like an October 29 own goal at the death that caused a 2-1 loss to Minnesota) was the best defender for the Rapids in 2020. I think it likely he was given a new contract when he was sold by Columbus after his loan, but I’ve found no details of it anywhere, so perhaps the Rapids need to make a new deal for the hulking Ghanaian with the unique hairdo. Abubakar’s been great - and he’s likely to continue to be great for a good while longer - keeping him is the definition of a no-brainer. If the Rapids have to triple his salary to lock him down for the next couple years, they ought to do it, and through his age 28 year, at least.
Steven Beitashour
2019 Salary: $275,000 Contract Status: Expired
Age: 34 Minutes Played: 0 G+ overall: 0
Keep or Cut?: Cut
He was signed in late September, either as ‘just in case’ fullback depth or your proverbial veteran locker room presence for the stretch run - and certainly for a fraction of his last deal with deep-pocketed LAFC. For whatever reason, he didn’t rate at all for Robin Fraser (Zero minutes played), and I think at this point, Beitashour is going to be making the choice between playing lower league football or hangin’ em up. He was a good fullback for a long while, and has two Supporters Shields, an MLS Cup, an appearance in the 2012 MLS All-Star Game, and a trip with the Iranian National team to the 2014 World Cup in Brazil to show for his career. If this is the end of the line, what a wonderful line it has been.
Kortne Ford
2020 Salary: $85,000 Contract Status: Expired
Age: 24 Minutes Played: 0 G+: -0.0
Keep or Cut?: Literally nothing matters less in the universe than this question
I think the world of Kort Ford. I was watching him as a senior with DU back in 2016 and knew he was the real deal. His story of growing up with an abusive father was already known back then - a since-removed piece on the DU Athletics site covered it, and former Denver Post soccer correspondent John Meyer wrote a great article exploring that rough experience back in Kort’s 2017 rookie year. Kort’s mother, his entire world, went through a rough bout of breast cancer that year, and by the looks of Ford’s instagram, that cancer is back.
To see all that Ford has struggled with: domestic abuse, poverty, a parent with cancer, and two years of knee injuries; you’d have to have a heart of stone to not love and root for him. I doubt Kort wants to be an inspirational story - the man just wants to play soccer and help out his team. But he is an inspiration, and his value as a player is dwarfed by the impact he has (and will have) on youngsters by explaining to them what the words ‘persistence’ and ‘overcoming’ mean.
From a professional standpoint, I’m not entirely sure that being on an MLS roster is really that important to getting Kort back to 100% strength - I’d like to see him play at least a half season in USL to regain the touch and feel of the game after two years away. But whether that’s on a sign-and-loan deal from the Rapids to a USL team, or being cut outright and picked up by the Colorado Springs Switchbacks (their GM is the Rapids Director of Development Brian Crookham); that’s unimportant. Ford might get back to soccer next year and might have a long and successful MLS career ahead of him, but he might not. He’s going to be an ‘impact’ soccer player, though, to every person he meets, for the rest of his life.
…
(Time out. Have you subscribed to the HTHL Newsletter, which will put Backpass in your email the minute it gets posted? No? You should. Click this button: )
(OK, back to the roster obsessing.)
…
Clint Irwin
2019 Salary: $138,707 Contract Status: Unknown
Age: 31 Minutes Played: 360 G-xG: +1.26
Keep or Cut?: Keep
Pity the plight of the journeyman backup goalkeeper. The Colorado Rapids shipped Clint Irwin to Toronto in 2016 and acquired Zac MacMath, using him until Tim Howard arrived. When Howard retired, the Rapids unloaded MacMath and re-acquired fan-favorite Irwin, only to sign William Yarborough and bump him up in the pecking order. A dude just can not catch a break.
You could easily argue that the Rapids ought to save a few bucks and let 3rd string keeper Andre Rawls or young academy prodigy Abe Rodriguez get a shot at the backup spot. But if you look at Minnesota United, who lost starting keeper Tyler Miller and had an able backup ready in Dane St. Clair, or at Columbus Crew, who sold Zach Steffen and had a solid replacement lined up behind him in Eloy Room, you see the value of being two-deep in the net, and for a reasonable price.
Niki Jackson
2020 Salary: $57,225 Contract Status: Expired
Age: 25 Minutes Played: 0 G+: 0.0
Keep or Cut?: Cut
Niki’s breakout rookie season - 3 MLS goals in 2018 as a fourth-round Superdraft pick out of Grand Canyon University - was a revelation, and showed that Niki, a raw talent with great physical gifts, had much potential. He spent almost all of 2019 in Charlotte on loan to the USL Independence, where he scored an underwhelming 5 goals in 1,180 minutes. He tore his ACL at the start of 2020 and has been rehabbing ever since.
Jackson really needed to start refining his game - finding space when he’s off-the-ball, refining his first touch, developing better passing ability - over the past two years, but the gains were incremental in 2019 and, of course, non-existent in 2020. I think it unlikely the Rapids re-sign him, but maybe Niki gets back on the pitch in 2021 with a USL team and continues his growth and refinement. I don’t think he’s an MLS caliber player though, and sadly, the window to become one is now infinitesimally small.
Jeremy Kelly
2020 Salary: $81,375*** Contract Status: Expired
Age: 23 Minutes Played: 250 G+: -0.37
Keep or Cut?: Keep
The Rapids went out and got Kelly, the ninth overall pick of the 2020 MLS Superdraft, by giving Montreal $75,000. Kelly put in a couple of good shifts at right-back and overall looked like a slick dribbling kid with signs of promise. He needs a little work on his defending and passing out of pressure situations, but for the MLS minimum salary as a bench option and spot starter, he’s gold, Jerry.
This dribble right here is worth the dude’s entire salary all by itself.****
Drew Moor
2019 Salary: $375,000 Contract Status: Expired, likely club option
Age: Almost 37 Minutes Played: 490 G+: +0.19
Keep or Cut?: Cut
To be honest, it’s kind of crazy that Drew Moor can still get it done at center back. His performance in the eight matches he appeared in demonstrated that he’s still as good at organizing his teammates on the field as he was a decade ago when he won MLS Cup with the Rapids. He’s also a club legend - Moor started 2020 second all-time on the Rapids list in Games, Games Started, and Minutes Played for the club - second to Pablo Mastroeni in all three records.
But that said, I’d always prefer to see a player finish out their career still getting occasional starts and looking good doing it rather than grinding it out at practice and praying not to get stuck on the reserve team every Saturday. Moor turns 37 at the beginning of January, which is the age that the ageless DeMarcus Beasley was when he retired in 2019. Moor could probably wring another 500 minutes of soccer out of his career in spot starts and 80th-minute hold-the-lead appearances for the Rapids next year. But in my humble opinion, he’d do a lot more good for the club going forward if he were an academy assistant coach alongside Marcelo Balboa or Eric Bushey, molding and shaping the next generation of Colorado Rapids defenders that will grind their opponents into dust.
Andre Shinyashiki
2019 Salary: $95,000 Contract Status: Expired, likely club option
Age: 25 Minutes Played: 1,028 G+: -0.26 G: 4 A: 0 xG: 3.5 xA: 1.4
Keep or Cut?: Keep
I only met Andre Shinyshiki once. I was just waiting around on the long green expanse of fields southwest of DSGP to interview Rapids U23 coach Eric Bushey, taking some photos of training. Shinyashiki was joking with some pals off to the side, getting ready to do a light workout due to a calf strain. He had just finished his junior year at the University of Denver, where he had been an above-average college forward. Of course, only a dozen or so NCAA players successfully make the jump to MLS. A few dozen more end up in USL. The rest become accountants. I asked Shinyashiki what he planned to do after he graduated next year, and he looked at me like I had shot his dog. With absolute confidence and deadly seriousness, he replied “I’m going to play in MLS”.
His senior season, he lead the NCAA in goals, and the rest is history.
I give all this preamble because I want it on record that I’m as big a ‘Dre fan as the next guy. I mean, he did this in his Rapids debut match, which earned a 3-3 draw in the 2019 season opener:
Initially, I thought was likely to turn into a regular 10 goal-a-year striker for the Rapids - a bargain buy that would once again prove the value of shrewd domestic talent evaluation over dropping big coin on a South American kid whose prospects are no better and no worse.
But, to be honest,
Dre’s 2020 season was underwhelming - a step backward from his breaking rookie of the year performance the season last. In 2019 he had a 0.36 G/96 and an xG/96 of 0.37 alongside assist numbers of 0.10 A/96 and 0.17 xA/96,* or raw numbers of 7 G and 2 A. In 2020, those numbers fell modestly to 0.35 G/96, 0.28 xG/96, 0.0 A/96 and 0.10 xA/96; 4 G and 0 A. In a typical game this season, we’d see Shinyashiki receive the ball at the edge of the pitch and sweep it forward with his right foot; dribble at the right-back with modest pace and a few shimmys and head fakes; get completely closed out and sealed off; and recycle the ball to the top of the box after the opposition had had a chance to regroup. He was good in spurts, but he also failed to win the Left Wing position outright over Nicolas Benezet, nor did he really take a step forward this year as a player. He’s never been a particularly incisive passer, and in 2020, his xA dropoff shows that he was less incisive than hoped for.
It’s possible Shinyashiki’s struggles are positional; that he would be better as a pure striker in a 4-4-2 setup than the 4-3-3 he’s currently utilized in. He’s always struck me as a fox-in-the-box or a gap-shooting forward rather than a winger, but in the 4-3-3 he’s got to generate offense from wide spots, and maybe that’s not gonna work.
Listen, he’s a good player, and he’s useful, and the Rapids should keep him - if the team has a club option like I expect, he’s probably due to earn something like $105 to 125K in 2021, which is insanely cheap for a reliable bench scorer. That said, I think it’s ok to let go of the notion that Dre is going to be ‘the solution’ at the number 9 position for the Rapids or a future MLS All-Star. He’s solid and reliable off-the-bench scoring, but we can let go of the notion that he is Colorado’s version of Landon Donovan or Chris Wondolowski.
Sam Vines
2020 Salary: $81,250 Contract Status: Unknown; likely expired with a club option
Age: 21 Minutes Played: 1620 G+: -1.10
Keep or Cut?: Keep
According to the official press release, Sam Vines original HG contract was a three-year deal signed in 2018, which would mean it expired last week. Colorado may have a club option for Vines that was unreported in the initial presser, however. I dunno.
Sam started every regular season match for the Rapids, and played every minute of the regular season. He was as solid a defender as ever, but his passing and his impact in getting forward in 2020 seemed off; his Passing g+ reflects this, as it was a team-worst -0.87. That number tanked his overall g+, making it the worst on the team. Whether you really buy ‘g+’ as a demonstrative stat or not, I don’t think Vines was as electric in 2020 as he was in 2019, and there’s room for improvement.
But these are minor points: Sam is currently dirt cheap and very, very good. As a Homegrown, the Rapids can pay Sam whatever they want and it won’t count against the Senior Roster salary cap of $4,900,000. Additionally, if Sam gets sold abroad, the Rapids keep 95% of the money earned. Even if his agent gets the ‘Pids to quadruple his salary, you re-sign Sam.
Collen Warner
2018***** Salary: $251,404 Contract Status: Expired, Club Option
Age: 32 Minutes Played: 263 G+: -0.31
Keep or Cut?: Cut
Collen Warner was the equivalent of the guy or gal you sidle up to at the bar at 1:45 AM when your night hasn’t gone very well: his best attribute is that he’s available. The Rapids apparently woke up the morning of June 28 and realized ‘Shit! If Jack Price gets suspended, we’re boned.’ In the radical post-Pablo Mastroeni pivot to a new formation and lineup, the Rapids had chucked every d-mid on the roster except Pricey, and for some reason just never restocked. In a related note, I’ve really been craving more shape-of-the-can cranberry sauce, but my local markets are all out. Wait too long, and you gotta get what’s there. And thus, on June 29, the Rapids announced that Colorado-native Collen Warner was signed to contract.
Warner’s fine - he stepped in after Price’s MLS is Back Tourney red card and did fine. But both the naked eye and g+ could tell you that Warner was a replacement-level guy, nothing more. Other than an Interrupting g+ of +0.01, all his other detailed g+ numbers were negative, and his -0.12 Passing g+ (in just 263 minutes) in particular tells you he’s just not great.
Danny Wilson
2019 Salary: $540,000 Contract Status: Expired
Age: 27 Minutes Played: 740 G+: +0.71
Keep or Cut?: Cut
I’ve been slagging on Danny Wilson since forever. In 2018 and 2019 he had all the reliability of a 1977 Plymouth Fury that had been sitting on your front lawn for the last six years (AKA, not reliable). Dude would make a bunch of solid plays in a match and then, mysteriously, just blow one or two plays completely - fail to close down, get schooled, etc. Here he is in 2018 getting absolutely posterized by Samuel Armenteros.
However, in 2020, Robin Fraser and his coaching staff of Neil Emblen, Chris Sharpe, and Jase Kim somehow worked some magic and whipped Wilson back into shape. Maybe it was confidence, maybe it was a better formation, maybe it was a full season alongside Lalas Abubakar, maybe it was better midfield shielding, but Wilson was actually a pretty good defender in 2020 - his +0.71 g+ mark was second-best among all Rapids players, and 17th among all MLS center backs. He stepped into the role Tommy Smith used to play of the ‘start the attack’, ball-playing CB who could pick out the right first pass into midfield or launch the accurate 40-yard diagonal as needed, and his +0.33 Passing g+ (10th among all MLS CBs) shows that he did that job very well.
However, Wilson’s a very risky proposition - he had two below-average years and one above-average year in Commerce City; he takes up an International spot; at $540,000, he’s a very expensive CB; and he’s blocking the path forward for young Auston Trusty to get playing time. There are probably some younger domestic players you could get instead, or at least an equally expensive and more accomplished international player that might take this defense to the next level.
He could get re-signed, and it wouldn’t necessarily be the worst move. However, I wouldn’t do it, and Pádraig Smith isn’t usually one to extend an additional three-year deal to a player that’s just recently passed his prime soccering years of age 26 / 27.
Deklan Wynne
2019 Salary: $74,250 Contract Status: Expired
Age: 25 Minutes Played: 0 G+: +0.0
Keep or Cut?: Cut
Deklan Wynne was on the bench for a few matches back during the MLS is Back Tournament in July.
Then he just… disappeared.
Since Matt Pollard, my eyes and ears on the ground in Colorado, couldn’t go to training, he never got to see what was up on field 20, or if Wynne was even there. And since the Rapids offered up Robin Fraser in limited bites and reporters normally would just get a question or two each, Lord knows Matt wasn’t gonna waste a precious postgame Q on ‘Hey, whatever happened to that kid from New Zealand?’
And so we literally have no idea what happened to Deklan Wynne.
As far as we know, he was simply a healthy scratch for the Rapids who just didn’t rate any more at left-back. He was so out of favor that when Sam Vines was benched due to a sore hamstring in the Rapids playoff match against Minnesota, they went with Kellyn Acosta at left-back. To my knowledge, Acosta had never played there before. One might assume they hadn’t brought Wynne with them to Minnesota, but even if they had, I have to believe he still wouldn’t have started that game.
Hopefully the issue was simply that Wynne was passed up, talent-wise, by the better and younger Sam Vines, and not that Wynne had personal or injury issues. Back in 2019 he played 917 minutes for the Rapids at left and right back, all as a starter, and looked like a solid player under development. At 25 years old, Wynne is still young, and hopefully will catch on again with another team. But I think it safe to say that team will not be the Rapids next year.
…
Welp, that’s all for the re-birth of Backpass. Sing it from the rooftops. Tell yo momma. Backpass is here to serve all your nerdy Rapids needs, every Tuesday, until the rapture. Or another full-blown website collapse.
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*:To quote American Soccer Analysis stats guru John Muller, “Goals added (g+) measures a player’s total on-ball contribution in attack and defense. It does this by calculating how much each touch changes their team’s chances of scoring and conceding across two possessions.” For more explanation (and a cool graphic!) click here.
**: G/96 and A/96 are Goals and Assists per 96 minutes of play, respectively. xG is Expected Goals per 96 minutes; Expected Goals are a measure, based on observing the position a shot was taken in, of the probability of a goal going in from that place. The data compiled on xG is based on tens of thousands of shots in MLS taken in the prior season. A striker that has goals in excess of their xG is a better-than-average shooter. But also, a striker needs to get into position to even generate the shots that feed the G and xG numbers - so a guy with 15 goals on a 20.0 xG can also be good, even though he has a -5.0 G-xG. You might say ‘he ought to have had 20 goals!’ But you can also say ‘he created more chances for himself - though speed or dribbling ability or guile.’ However, a guy with 0 goals on 7.0 xG is pure how-hiiiiigh-do-you-want-the-goal trash.
***: Jeremy Kelly is literally the only Rapids player for whom we know his exact salary. As a non-Homegrown who is listed in slot 21 on the Rapids Supplemental roster, he must make the Senior Minimum; no more, no less; of $81,375.
****: I had to go searching twitter for that gif and found out the hard way that Jeremy Kelly is also the name of a gay porn actor. This was a mistake that a person only makes once in their life.
*****: There is no salary data available on Warner for 2019, so I went back to 2018.