Red's Decision Day Preview
Trying to win the Western Conference and who could be coming to DSG in the first round?
Ah, Decision Day. It’d be an MLS National Holiday if Holding The High Line had any say. The final day of the regular season. Every team in the conference playing a game, kicking off at the same time. Chaos, uncertainty, fans and media yelling updates at each other while checking their phones for the live standings.
I love it, I hate it, it’s maddening, and I want it injected straight into my veins.
Everything you need to know about Decision Day
In the 2021 edition of D-Day, the Colorado Rapids find themselves in third place in the conference and hosting Los Angeles FC. They can still mathematically finish in first. There are also six possible opponents they could face in that first round home game at DSG.
With THREE relevant out-of-town matches to keep an eye on, how should the Rapids Community approach this Sunday? Let’s take a look.
First and foremost: Pids vs. LAFC
This game’s really simple in terms of what’s at stake: Both teams need a win. Colorado needs three points to have any chance at winning the conference. LAFC needs a win and help elsewhere just to make the playoffs.
Cristian Arango has been a savior for Bob Bradley’s side with 13 goals. They’ll go for the win and put numbers into the attack. This will play nicely into dueling 4-3-3s OR for Colorado to pick them apart on the counter into space. As I said on the pod this week, I have a Rapids win. Neutralize Arango and get Jack Price a few of Loki’s toboggans and it will be the most likely result.
Next most important: Vancouver Whitecaps host Seattle
The Caps are the hottest of the playoff hopefuls going into Sunday. They’re playing a Sounders Sounders team who are winless in five. Seattle wins and they win the conference automatically. Vancouver wins and they clinch a playoff spot automatically.
Predicting Cascadia Cup games is usually futile. It could be a wide open goal fest. It could be a cagey 1-1 draw that turns into a hipster knife fight in the second half.
The key thing for me is for the Rapids to not end up playing Vancouver in the first round. Other than Real Salt Lake, who aren’t better than Colorado but live rent free in their heads, this would be the worst matchup.
They’re unbeaten going back to September 19 when they got a 1-1 draw in Commerce City. They had the best summer transfer window in the league and Vanni Sartini’s had the best new coach bump since possibly Brian Schmetzer in 2015.
Plus, remember how they started the season in Salt Lake playing home games with no fans at Rio Tinto. If anyone will know how to prepare for a road playoff game at altitude other than RSL, it’s Vancouver. No thank you.
Crisis of Confidence: Sporting KC hosting RSL
Both these teams got sucker punched in their last two games. SKC lost to Minnesota United last weekend and got taken to the cleaners midweek in Austin 3-1. That opening 30 minutes on Wednesday is the worst I’ve ever seen Sporting play. They have not looked like themselves.
On the other side, RSL lost to the eliminated Earthquakes 4-3 over the weekend, conceding four unanswered. Then Sebastian Blanco and the Portland Timbers picked RSL apart on the counter attack. Portland won 3-1 on Wednesday.
Pablo Mastroeni has done such a good job expanding his tactical ideas and fitting them to his team. For all that good, there’s distinct flaws in their game that teams like San Jose and Portland are set up to exploit.
Something has to give. One of these teams has to get a result. SKC is at home and on the mend. They can’t play any worse than they did last game. Peter Vermes will know how to get them to bounce back.
They aren’t well set up to great to take advantage of RSL’s weaknesses. They are a better team all around though. Sporting reestablishes their style of play, wins 2-1 in close game, and wins the Western Conference.
Essentially a play in game: LA Galaxy host the Deathloons
Minnesota has been up and down the last month. As Emanuel Reynoso goes, so go the Loons. The LA Galaxy have lots of draws but just two wins in 14 games. Chicharito doesn’t look 100% since coming back from injury and their backline is as solid as a slice of swiss cheese.
Like Sporting vs RSL, someone has to pick up points. Both teams have talent but their bad runs of form have them flirting with missing the playoffs.
If the Loons miss the playoffs, serious questions need to be asked of Adrian Heath. He’s been given resources but cycles through big money strikers faster than Coach Beard and Jane breakup then makeup. If the Galaxy drop, they’ll still be trusting Greg Vanney’s process but whether both Mexican DPs should return in 2022 is unclear.
I don’t trust either of these teams. Give me two undeserved goals and a 1-1 draw. Galaxy undeservedly finish seventh because the other results go their way.
TL;DR: Rapids Decision Day Scenarios
Colorado wins the conference IF: Colorado wins vs LAFC AND Seattle loses or draws Vancouver AND Kansas City loses or draws RSL.
Colorado finishes second IF: Colorado wins AND one of Seattle and Kansas City wins while the other draws or loses
OR Colorado draws AND Kansas City loses.
Colorado finishes third IF: Colorado loses
OR Colorado draws AND Kansas City wins or draws
OR Colorado wins AND Seattle wins AND Kansas City wins.