Backpass: 2022 Player Reviews, Centerbacks
Backpass: 2022 Player Reviews, Centerbacks
In 2022 the Colorado Rapids conceded 57 goals; 4th-most in all of MLS, and 22 more goals than they allowed in 2021. But hey, it’s better than in 2018 and 2019, when the team conceded 63 goals, right?
I start with this to note that the defense wasn’t great in 2022. But it could have been worse, and of course the centerbacks aren’t entirely to blame. It takes a whole team to finish in the bottom 20% of MLS in Goals Conceded. However, the centerbacks will have to shoulder a larger share of the blame. Keeping goals out of the net is really their most important role. If they aren’t doing that well, then the team is generally going to struggle.
Lalas Abubakar
2432 minutes, 4 goals, 0 assists
Best Moment
Either the game-tying goal against RSL on April 2
or
this insane volley to take a 1-0 lead against Austin on July 4.
Worst Game/Moment
On August 2, Lalas accidentally redirected a shot by NY Red Bulls into his own net. On NYRB’s second goal, a corner kick, Abubakar lost Aaron Long in the box to concede another goal. In the 23rd minute, Abubakar brought down a goal kick and just gave it to Luquiñas, then yanked him down from behind in the box to “stop” him from getting to goal. The ref assessed him a red at first, then rescinded it for a yellow. Lewis Morgan buried the PK in the back of the net as the Metrostars went up 3-1. Abubakar is subbed off at the half. Rapids would win a wild 5-4 victory, no thanks to Abubakar.
American Soccer Analysis G+ stats (Above Average, average being 0.0)-
Dribbling: -0.05 Fouling: -0.25 Interrupting: +1.25
Passing: -0.29 Receiving: +0.27 Shooting: +0.23
Total G+: +1.17
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Lalas Abubakar had the 4th-best Interrupting G+ and 12th Best Shooting G+ of all CBs in MLS. Overall, his Total G+ was 16th amongst MLS CBs, ahead of well-regarded players on more successful teams like Jacob Glesnes and Aaron Long. You can trust these numbers are good at telling the real story: well regarded players like Walker Zimmerman, Joel Waterman, Alexander Callens, and Jack Elliott are all in the top 10. His fbref percentiles indicate a guy that wins headers, clogs the lane, and, with an 87.3 percent Pass Completion rate, is consistently tidy at the back with the ball.
Lalas regularly has a game or two, typically early season, with a poorly timed challenge or a bone-headed takedown. But if you watch him play, every week, game in and game out, he’s generally one of the better centerbacks in the league. He’s fast in the open field. He’s great in the air. He’s a good passer. He is tied for 4th in Goals for a defender this year.
On more than a few plays this year, a tricky little dribbling mid broke on him from midfield, and Lalas rode the challenge 30 yards without getting skinned; twisting and turning this way and that to keep in front of the attacker, who was always smaller and quicker. On more than a few plays this year, I watched him go from chasing down a tiny Central Attacker to bodying up a Center Forward within five seconds without missing a beat. I recommend taking any game this season, and just watching Abubakar for 30 minutes straight. If he’s on his game, he’s amazing, and he’s on his game more often than not.
His passing numbers aren’t amazing, but I wonder if that’s not due to the team assigning that duty to his more adept line mates Auston Trusty and Danny Wilson.
There are folks who are gonna hate on this. We’ve all seen Lalas kick a play or two - because defenders are remembered not for their daring slide tackles or effortless clearances, but for their mistakes. My eyes, and the math, say Lalas makes fewer mistakes than other defenders. That’s a fact.
Abubakar is simply one of the best players on the Rapids. He’s physically gifted, he has a great soccer IQ, and the underlying metrics tell us that he’s really performed for an underperforming crew. I mean, dude even scores goals like a winger, but he’s a center back. Respect.
Grade: A-1
Danny Wilson
2101 minutes, 0 goals, 1 assist
American Soccer Analysis G+ Stats (Above Average, average being 0.0)-
Dribbling: -0.47 Fouling: +0.07 Interrupting: -0.45
Passing: +0.50 Receiving: +0.42 Shooting: +0.03
Total G+: +0.09
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Best Game: Against LA Galaxy on July 17, Wilson had 10 Clearances, 4 Blocks, 3 Tackles, and FotMob rating of 7.9 as the ‘Pids won 2-0.
Worst Game: Against Austin FC on July 4, Wilson had a play to clear a ball but somehow decided to duck and let Trusty play it. Trusty didn’t, and the Verde got a goal. He had a few more bad plays later in the match, although Auston Trusty was a lot worse.
There isn’t a really sophisticated way to describe Danny Wilson over the past four years other than this:
Wilson’s G+ is steady and unspectacular - his Passing G+ is always above average for a CB, and it’s his other numbers that determine from year to year if he’s doing it well or not. Overall, his Interrupting G+ over the past two years gives reason for concern. When you look at his fbref percentile numbers, it’s even more stark. Wilson, like Abubakar, is strong at clearances and blocks - actions that take place inside the box or in a low block. But open field, on the run, or pressing/confronting the attacker, Wilson’s pressures and tackles are pretty poor. A stat Joseph Lowery and Joseph Samuelson shared might illuminate why that is:
Wilson’s doesn’t have the foot speed to defend in open spaces. That either means he needs another defender in the 3-back CB system (like Trusty) to do the run-and-tackle work, or a defensive midfielder picks up that slack. The question for Colorado is always about that trade off - does Wilson’s distribution and accuracy out the back make up for his underwhelming mobility?
So far, the answer is yes. Wilson’s +0.09 Total G+ means he’s still a good center back. He is likely not going to have a sudden renaissance at this stage of his career and become a top-of-the-league center back. He likely isn’t the kind of difference maker that delivers teams to the playoffs or the MLS Cup like vintage Ike Opara or Omar Gonzalez or Walker Zimmerman. The door is open, then, for a young talent to displace him – if someone like Gustavo Vallecilla or Aboubakar Keita is ready to seize the opportunity in 2023.
Grade: C+
Auston Trusty
1589 minutes, 0 goals, 0 assists
American Soccer Analysis G+ Stats (Above Average, average being 0.0)-
Dribbling: -0.04 Fouling: +0.17 Interrupting: +0.77
Passing: -0.13 Receiving: +0.09 Shooting: +0.07
Total G+: +0.93
fbref- [Note: this is the last 365 days, which includes a handful of Birmingham English Championship matches. Nothin’ I can do, folks.]
Best Game(s)
It’s one of two options. Trusty had a great match on May 14 at home against LAFC in which he held Carlos Vela, matching up against Trusty on the left side in the 3-5-2, to 40 touches, 2 shots, 0.1 xG and 0.1 xA. That’s not that exceptional - Vela was held to 0.2 xG+xA or fewer nine times in 2022 out of 32 matches - but it is important, and the Rapids won this match 2-0 as Trusty and the defense also stymied Christian Arango and the rest of the vaunted LAFC team. Trusty also produced a great low cross that result in a PK call, which Diego Rubio converted to put the ‘Pids up 2-0.
Or, if we’re going solely by the numbers, it’s Trusty performance in the March 5 home opener against Atlanta United. Trusty had 16 Pressures, 4 Tackles, 5 Interceptions, and he had the progressive pass to start the attack that scored the 3rd goal in the team’s 3-0 win. Boy did that early season game give false hope to the fan base: the team would never again win by three all year.
Worst Game
July 4 against Austin, Trusty was at fault on both the first and the second goal for literally just … letting the ball go right past him. On the second, Mark Anthony-Kaye gave Trusty the full Lebron-to-JR-Smith treatment. Observe:
And:
Trusty was a great get for the Rapids front office when they acquired him from Philadelphia Union for $600K in TAM and GAM spread over two seasons, considering they would ultimately flip him to Arsenal for a $2 million transfer fee.2 The deal was made in the offseason, and Arsenal would loan trusty back to the Rapids for the during of their 2021-2022 campaign.
He was a productive and valuable player in his two years, no doubt. His Overall G+ in 2021 was -0.99, worst of all the team’s centerbacks over his term, and is mostly chalked up to an atrocious -1.02 Interrupting G+. In 2022, his Interrupting G+ was a stellar +0.77, lifting his Overall G+ to a +0.93 – pretty good.
Rapids fans noted that there was a significant falloff in his performance as Trusty neared his departure date for England in July. While Fotmob’s auotmated match rating metric isn’t perfect, it still seems to catch what we all were seeing: there were a lot of blunders at the end of his term in Commerce City. Trusty’s last game, as noting above, was an outright shitshow, meriting a 4.5/10 Fotmob rating. Normally you only see individual ratings numbers like that when North Scroggingsworth Wednesday3 loses to Manchester United in the first round of the FA Cup 8-0. Trusty's decline looks like this:
Overall in 2022, Colorado went 4-4-8 in the matches Trusty started before leaving for jolly ol’ England, and they went 6-6-5 in games in the post-Trusty era. However, I don’t think that means simply ‘the Rapids were better without Trusty’, because there were so many other factors, like home vs. road and the poor performance of other players to factor in.
Trusty’s raw physical gifts are undeniable. He has fullback-type speed and centerback-type height; he tackles and presses very well; he’s an able ball handler. He’s not the best passer. And he clearly has the capacity to lose focus and mail it in. Arsenal are probably betting that with higher caliber opposition and the right coaching, he might be an EPL-level talent, or at least someone that can be punted on to the Championship or Belgium for a modest profit. His legacy with Colorado will likely be murky - wasn’t here long, wasn’t here for our best years, was reliable and at times exceptional, perhaps not quite the heroic savior we hoped for.
When you look at some of the other players that departed the Philadelphia Union for other teams, like Brendan Aaronson and Mark McKenzie (who left after 2020), the Rapids clearly didn’t get quite that caliber of player, and because he’s young and still has tremendous upside, he was punted on quite quickly. That’s ok by me – the team ought to find profit where it can, and young players that want to go to Europe should get that chance. But Auston Trusty will likely be remember for unrealized potential than he will for being part of something great.
Grade: B
Gustavo Vallecilla
632 minutes, 0 g, 0 a, 4 Yellow Cards, 2 Red Cards
American Soccer Analysis G+ Stats (Above Average, average being 0.0)-
Dribbling: -0.06 Fouling: -0.24 Interrupting: +0.39
Passing: -0.22 Receiving: -0.21 Shooting: -0.02
Total G+: -0.36
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Best Game: April 23 vs Charlotte. Starting and playing 59 minutes, Vallecilla and the rest of the back five locked down visiting Charlotte for a full match as the Rapids produced a 0-0 draw. This will likely be considered William Yarbrough’s best game too, as he made a couple big saves on the night to earn the point.
Worst game: The debacle at Chester, PA on August 27. Vallecilla earns a yellow in the 7th minute for an ugly foul. He fails to contest a diagonal to Michael Uhre that he sends on to Daniel Gazdag for a goal in the 8th minute. He whiffs on another play a few minutes later, but Yarbrough saves the shot. He fouls Oliver Mbaizo in the box in 28th for a PK. In the 34th minute he makes a boneheaded turnover, then wraps his arms around Michael Uhre to bring him down, resulting in his second yellow and a sending off. In just 33 minutes of action, he is the cause of two goals and the Rapids going down to 10 men. Not since Caleb Calvert was a Colorado Rapids player has there been a nearly as catastrophic and utterly awful a performance by one player in Philadelphia.
…
Gustavo Vallecilla probably shouldn’t even have been on this team. He was a late-in-the-window saving throw for Pádraig Smith after Aboubakar Keita went down with a torn ACL in pre-season – a hopeful ‘finger in the dam’ to shore up a backline that wasn’t really good enough to start the year, and was destined to get worse once Auston Trusty left. Vallecilla was in a pretty good position to make an impact: play well, and when Trusty departs, he could have his spot in a three man backline with veterans Danny Wilson and Lalas Abubakar. Eff it up, and the Rapids would have to switch formations to a 4-3-3 / 4-2-3-1.
Vallecilla effed it up.
To be honest, there were precisely zero games in the year when he impressed me. There were zero games in the year where he didn’t follow up two nice tackles with a foul in a bad spot or a yellow card. Those G+ numbers above are sum totals, not amounts pro-rated for minutes on the pitch. So if you took his fouling rate of -0.24 and extrapolated out to a full season of around 3000 minutes, he’d have a roughly -1.18 Fouling G+. The worst rate in MLS in 2022 belonged to Rodrigo Schlegel with a -0.77 Fouling G+. The worst rate in MLS history since numbers have been kept is Doniel Henry in 2014 with a -1.05 FoulG+. Vallecilla simply fouls when he’s supposed to defend way, way too much. Note also that his passing numbers are woefully, epically bad. 18th percentile pass completion is bad. But then factor in that he was in the bottom 1 percentile among MLS CBs in progressive passes - and consider that he was *only* capable of passing the ball to Danny Wilson or William Yarbrough. He was entirely incompetent at sending the ball forward in a useful manner.
I had low expectations for a young fill-in like Gustavo, and he didn’t even reach those modest expectations. Of course, some of his defensive metrics like Blocks and his Interrupting G+ imply that there’s some things he’s good at. If he can learn how to better time his challenges, to avoid fouls, to pass, and to improve his dribbling, he might become a functioning bench-caliber centerback in MLS. Odds are, though, he’s playing above his level and we won’t be seeing much of him ever again.
Grade: D
Drew Moor
225 minutes, 0 g, 0 A
Drew Moor is a kind dude, a wonderful interview, and one of a handful of players that played the bulk of a long and successful career in Colorado. He predates DSG Park; his first two years in MLS with FC Dallas, he battled the Rapids in Mile High Stadium. He has played with Oscar Pareja, age 54, and Darren Yapi, age 18. He’s played with Carlos ‘Pescadito’ Ruiz and Bobby Rhine, and with Pablo Mastroeni and Conor Casey and Edson Buddle, and with Michael Bradley and Jozy Altidore and Sebastian Giovinco. He’s played against Harry Kane and Landon Donovan and Thierry Henry and Josef Martinez and Clint Dempsey.
He ranks second to Pablo Mastroeni on the Colorado Rapids all-time list in Games Played and Minutes Played. He’s one of only a handful of Rapids to play in the All-Star Game.4 He will without a doubt be inducted into the Rapids Gallery of Honor, to join club legends Mastroeni, Marcelo Balboa, Chris Henderson, Paul Spencer, Conor Casey, and Paul Bravo.
Dear friends, one cannot quantify loyalty. There is no advanced metric for rousing locker room speeches. There is no way to measure the sage advice handed down to a younger player about rest and recovery, or cheating an attacking player to their weak side, or how to handle a sticky contract negotiation. Drew Moor will be remembered for all the big things he did, like win the Colorado Rapids only MLS Cup Trophy, and all the small things he did, like remember my name when I saw him at training. I would say I wish him success in the next phase of career now that he has retired as a player, but you don’t need to wish for a success that is virtually guaranteed. Drew’s was a wonderful dude as a player – he’ll be wonderful at whatever he does next, too.
Grade: Legend
I don’t know that anyone on the Rapids will earn an A. Can any player be deserving of an A on a team that only produced 7 points on the road all season?
$300K of which went as a sell-on to Philly. Also, confusingly, Arsenal and Colorado are owned by the same guy, so on some level this is simply moving the $20 in your right pocket to your left.
Yes I just made this up, but now I really want a North Scroggingsworth Wednesday T-Shirt.
Robin Fraser, Marcelo Balboa, Chris Henderson, and Tim Howard are the only other Rapids players to make the squad. (Gyasi Zardes and Carlos Valderrama, among others, are former Rapids players who appeared in All-Star games, albeit not while they were in burgundy and blue.)