Backpass: 2022 Player Reviews, Fullbacks
Backpass: 2022 Player Reviews, Fullbacks
Let's get this started with the speed merchants and swashbucklers of the squad. How did they do?
It’s a little unorthodox to start a 2022 season review … before the 2022 season has officially concluded. The Colorado Rapids have two matches yet remaining to play. Except, having the wisdom of experience, I know two things. First, when fivethirtyeight.com has the ‘Pids at less than 1% chance of making the playoffs; and making the playoffs requires the Rapids to win two games, and for San Jose to beat the LA Galaxy, and a bunch of other stuff…
…then we ain’t making the playoffs.
Second, I have often done player reviews only to fail to complete them. Yeah, I *think* I’m only gonna spend a little time on the players. And then 1300 words later I’ve spend an ungodly amount of time discussing Eric Miller’s hair while also searching for the perfect clip of Vicente Sanchez doing Vicente Sanchez things. And I look up and it’s December. These reviews always take longer than I want, so I might as well start early while I’m motivated.1
Additional note - sometimes in the past I have gotten flummoxed and conflated the player reviews with judgement on a player’s future with the club. I’ll try not to do that, because then I get into the weeds with contract length and salary and likelihood of upgrades or alternatives and it gets convoluted. Here and now, we will just look at the players’ 2022 year.
We’ll start with the fullbacks, which is a good place to start, considering their numbers aren’t great, and therefore they give us a good look at why perhaps the 2022 Rapid were not very good.
Note that all grades are generally in regards to expectations - a young player might get an ‘A’ for a modest season while a veteran who plugs in average numbers might get a ‘C’.
Keegan Rosenberry, RB
2781 minutes, 2 goals, 1 assist
Best Moment: Game Winner against SJ, 9/15/22 in the 77th minute
Worst Moment: Conceded PK on a handball against DC, 9/04/222
American Soccer Analysis G+ stats (Above Average, average being 0.0)-
Dribbling: +0.68 Fouling: -0.61 Interrupting: -0.30
Passing: -0.09 Receiving: - 0.29 Shooting: +0.03
Total G+: -0.87
fbref stats-
Rosenberry’s in his fourth year with the Rapids at Right Back, and has been the most consistent, most healthy player on the team. He’s been top three on the team in minutes played all four years, and in 2019, he played every minute of the season. Wow. He’s always been tidy with the ball, hard to dispossess, and this year has been one of the best fullbacks in MLS at scoring goals; he was in the 69th percentile. Nice.
His defending numbers this year were worse than in the past. While his 2021 Interrupting G+ of -0.79 was worse than this year’s -0.30, his Fouling G+ of -0.61 was the worst of his time with the ‘Pids. He had 18 Fouls Conceded against 8 Fouls Won. While that’s not the most fouls he’s committed had in a season - he committed 33 in 2019 - normalized against other full backs, Rosenberry committed fouls more often in bad spots and *was* fouled less often than in other years - and that points to a not-great defensive year. To be fair, it could also point to bad luck with officiating or cascading defensive failures that result in Keegan being the last ditch effort. But generally, over 32 games, the effect of luck and coaching is supposed to even out a little and reveal whats going on, and what we see is that Rosenberry is hacking a lot and not drawing fouls as much. He had the worst Fouling G+ of any fullback in MLS this year.
Rosenberry’s a few months shy of 29 years old, and fullback is a notorious rough position as players age, since speed tends to decline. That might be at work here. Whatever it was, Rosenberry didn’t have a great year; the Rapids didn’t have a great year.
Grade: C
Lucas Esteves, LB
2090 minutes, 1 goal, 2 assists
Best Moment: Game-tying goal against SKC on 5/18/22
Worst Moment(s): Conceded a PK to Randall Leal in 1st half; gets posterized for a headed goal by Hany Muktar in 2nd half as Rapids get destroyed by Nashville 4-1, FotMob tagged it as a 5.3/10 performance.
American Soccer Analysis G+ stats (Above Average, average being 0.0)-
Dribbling: +0.14 Fouling: -0.09 Interrupting: -0.05
Passing: -0.97 Receiving: +0.12 Shooting: +0.14
Total G+: -0.80
fbref stats-
Lucas Esteves was signed as the replacement for Sam Vines, one of the best Left Backs ever to play for Colorado and almost certainly the best Academy product in team history. No pressure, kid. Actually, though, Esteves wasn’t supposed to be the LB this season - he was supposed to be the understudy to Vines’ heir apparent, Braian Galván. But Galván tore his right ACL in February, leaving Esteves as the starter and Steven Beitashour as the backup.
The 22 year-old Brazilian Esteves has yet to demonstrate a feel for the position, and it looks like he might be yet another example of a Rapids signing from South America3 who might be playing above his level in MLS.
Generally, it’s his defending that lets him down. He’s not awful - actually both the advanced math (ASA) and the counting stats (fbref) imply he was better in most areas than Rosenberry. He’s below average at every defensive category4, so you'd hope he trades that off for something that he's really good at.
Well, not so much. What Sam Vines could give you was passing. What Braian Galván could give you was dribbling and shooting. Esteves had a +0.14 in Shooting G+, but only one goal. And his passing numbers were pretty bad.
If you look at the passing numbers, particularly trying understand that Passing G+ of -0.97, it seems it is not the final pass that’s letting him down. Esteves has had a +1.89 xA, which is pretty average for fullbacks this year. It’s those other passes - the ‘Progressive Passes’ that advance the attack, or even the safe passes that keep the ball in possession, that aren’t so good. Esteves has a decent chunk of games with below 80% completed passes and eight matches with below 70% passing. He has eight games with two or fewer progressive passes.
Esteves is young and there’s definitely room for growth. But I’ve also written these season reviews long enough to know that eternal optimism for struggling young players is frequently wrong. I was all in for Dillon Serna back in the day, for example.
Maybe Esteves develops into a credible MLS fullback. Probably not though.
Grade: D
Steven Beitashour, FB
1254 minutes, 0 goals, 2 assists
Best Moment: Lovely assist to Mark Anthony-Kaye on 3/12/22 to seal up a 2-0 win against SKC
Worst Moment: Beita was on the field for the Rapids getting demolished by Philadelphia and Nashville, but he wasn’t personally responsible for any of the 10 goals those two teams scored on us.5 He was, however, at fault for Julian Araujo being wide open on the pass to Chicharito for the filthy back heel that made it 3-0, Galaxy last week (Colorado went on to lose, 4-1). Beita’s in space and can’t defend the pass to Araujo, and he can’t close the Galaxy fullback down fast enough before he assists Javier Hernandez. Hang that goal on him.
American Soccer Analysis G+ stats (Above Average, average being 0.0)-
Dribbling: -0.20 Fouling: -0.07 Interrupting: +0.36
Passing: -0.17 Receiving: -0.19 Shooting: -0.03
Total G+: -0.17
fbref stats-
Steven Beitashour was really not supposed to be starting much for the Rapids. The 35 year-old former Iranian national teamer was supposed to be spending this year next to Collen Warner and Drew Moor, lying in a hammock at training, getting massages, drinking lemonade, and deciding whether to move the bulk of their retirement savings into municipal securities with lower risk portfolios or ride the lightning with so-called ‘growth’ mutual funds.
Instead, Beita was needed due to injuries and rotation, and started 13 matches for the ‘Pids. His defense, according to the advanced metrics was pretty good: his +0.36 on Interrupting G+ was best among the fullbacks. His fbref percentile ranks indicate he was great at sitting in space and picking off passes between the lanes. On the other hand, while Clearances usually aren’t essential for fullbacks, even still, Beitashour’s 7th percentile on those headed defensive moments was pretty bad.
He also produced as many assists as the other fullbacks with roughly half the minutes, and his passing in general was good, although with just 44.61 passes per game, he wasn’t as involved as other similar players.
All in all, I’ve very happy with Beitashour’s performance. We shouldn’t have needed him at all, but we did, and it wasn’t a disaster. I hope someday someone writes something that nice about my job performance.
Grade: B
Anthony Markanich, LB
234 minutes, 0 goals, 0 assists
Best Moment: Played all 90 minutes in Colorado’s 1-0 win over Seattle and had a few chances at an assist, generally covering himself in glory and earning an 8.0/10 making him Man of the Match according to FotMob.
Worst Moment: Markanich pulled down Daniel Gazdag in the box to conceded a penalty as the Rapids were dismantled 6-0. Markanich was generally bad in this match.
American Soccer Analysis G+ stats (Above Average, average being 0.0)-
Dribbling: -0.05 Fouling: -0.23 Interrupting: -0.04
Passing: -0.06 Receiving: +0.14 Shooting: +0.08
Total G+: -0.16
The most important fact about Anthony Markanich’s season is that he made the team and leapfrogged Sebastian Anderson for a starting spot (although Anderson is primarily a right back). He had a great game against Seattle, and then two not good games against Nashville and Philadelphia.
I do like that receiving number above - Receiving G+ being the measure of how well a player gathers in a ball, even a poor pass or a difficult pass. G+ numbers also weight things situationally: a well-settled ball in the final third counts more than an easy lateral ball in your own end. That tracks with what I’ve seen- Markanich is confident when he overlaps and receives in the attack. This is something to keep an eye on, especially if the Rapids try to go back to a five-man backline with wingbacks in 2023.
Markanich will be 23 years old to start the 2023 season, and there’s probably not a lot more development in store for him. But he could become an 800 minute man every year in MLS, and a good one, if all the pieces align.
Grade: B
Sebastian Anderson, RB
MLS: 10 minutes, 0 goals, 0 assists
In 2019, Sebastian Anderson had six starts and 319 minutes for the Rapids, and recorded his first MLS goal. That was as a 16 year-old.
In 2020 and 2021, he spent the bulk of his time in USL with Colorado Switchbacks. In 2,286 minutes with COS, Anderson pulled a 1.41 Total G+, fifth-best among all fullbacks in USL, and recorded 7 assists.
This year, he got just 10 minutes with the big club; all garbage time. Sebbie primarily played in MLS Next Pro with Rapids 2, playing 988 minutes with 1 goal and 1 assist. With Rapi-Dos, his Total G+ was -0.29; worse than fellow R2 fullbacks Anthony Markanich and Omar Gomez. Rapids 2 were bad (7-6-11 WTL), and Sebastian Anderson did not make them better. In other words, over the past four years, Anderson hasn’t progressed. He hasn’t plateaued. Instead, he’s regressed.
He’s just 20 years old, he’s never been to college, he makes $105,000 a year playing soccer,6 and he just completed the fourth year of a five year contract. The Rapids hold a club option for 2024. Anderson’s entire career is on a knife’s edge. I don’t presume to understand what’s going on with him or why he hasn’t seized on his earlier promise to become the Rapids next great fullback. Maybe his meniscus tear in 2020 knocked him off track, and he's struggled to get back on track. Maybe he’s been poorly coached of late. Maybe he’s been stuck behind Keegan Rosenberry and he can’t learn on the job without MLS minutes. Maybe it’s all him and it’s mental. Or motivational.
Maybe he just is what he is - the can’t-miss-phenom that missed. He is entering the Davy Armstrong7/Dillon Serna/Nana Boateng zone: ‘youngster with promise’ that quickly tilts to ‘youngster who had promise’. All I know is - every NCAA Division I team has a talented, hard working Right Back. Every Rapids U19 team, U17 team, U15 team, and U13 team has a talented, hard working Right Back. If Anderson isn’t ready to be the man in 2023, there are plenty of other kids who ought to be given that shot.
Grade: NG
A correlating factor - it is a lot harder to do a player review for a guy the team has released - nobody really cares about that review, and I know it. So, if I waited for season’s end, started doing reviews, didn’t finish by MLS Cup, and the team announces players not returning, suddenly I will find myself unmotivated to pull apart the season of some released player.
Christian Benteke took a lousy PK, William ‘Yeah Barbara’ Yarbrough saved it, and the Rapids hung on to draw 0-0.
Luis Solignac, Juan Ramirez, Lucas Pittinari; technically Panama is part of Central America, but for my purposes, Gabriel Torres also fits this pattern. Galván was actually the first player in a while to reverse the trend.
Pressures, Tackles, Interceptions, Blocks, Clearances, and Aerials.
He was way upfield on all six goals the Union scored on the Rapids, which mostly were scored with quick transitions in which he was cut out completely. That could have been the coaches call. Had he defended deeper, Beitashour could have helped the defense in at least a few of those instances.
I mention this not because it’s a lot of money in soccer terms, or that it’s a waste. I wonder what happens, though, when you give a 16 year-old kid a five year deal in which he’s making low six-figs as a 19 year old. That would likely inflate my ego and decrease my motivation. Is that what’s up with Anderson?
There is zero disrespect meant to Davy Armstrong here. None. We aren’t all bound for MLS. Davy’s a firefighter for South Metro Fire and Rescue. Last year he rescued a golden retriever from a frozen river. He’s a goddamn hero. Life takes us in interesting directions.