Backpass: Being Right Sucks

The deep concerns amongst the fanbase about our striker situation seem to have been well-founded, as the Rapids looked toothless in the final third and crashed out of CCL early once again.

Nice John Babiak file photo of Lucas Esteves.

We spent a lot of time in the offseason calibrating expectations based on the knowledge that the dream of a Designated Player at striker was almost certainly never going to happen. Fans would write in to our podcast on email or twitter (didja know we do a podcast too?) saying ‘are we going to get a #9?’ ‘How much can we afford for a #9?’ ‘Who will be our #9 … number nine … nombre nueve?’ It got so repetitive, it felt like a Beatles song.¹

The question, when it has come to me on our podcast or when guesting on another show, was kind of embarrassing on some level. Based on experience, I simply did not believe that the Rapids would spend the money on a top-quality striker. Based on experience, I didn’t think what we had in hand was going to be good enough. I simply braced for impact at the season’s beginning, knowing that this team was good enough for mid-table, but not good enough to score goals consistently.

Being right, in this case, sucks.

The Rapids crashed out of Concacaf Champions League on Wednesday night, despite 1) being up a man; 2) against a visiting team; 3) that likely had never played in snow before. Colorado was able to consistently get into the opponents end. They took a lot of shots. They simply couldn’t manage to put any of the them in the net - save a 29th minute goal from Max Alves that equalized the aggregate score, ultimately sending the team to penalties. Twenty-four shots is a lot for scoring just one goal.

There were some real horror-show shots in that embedded highlight reel, including:

• The big headed whiff by Diego Rubio at 25’

• The terrible mis-hit at 27’ by Mark-Anthony Kaye

• Rubio’s shot right at the keeper at 44’

• Max’ miss at 49’

• An open Barrios getting stoned at 55’

• Rosenberry blasting one well wide at 57’

• Barrios’ underhit ball at 65’

and of course, the epic, amazing equalizer at 89’ … which was actually offsides by a whisker.

Of course the Rapids had bad luck in having that one called back. Of course the Rapids had bad luck in just barely losing on penalty kicks despite getting some clutch saves from William Yarbrough.

But we all know it should never have come to either a late winner or a PK victory. We generated enough shots and dominated on the ball enough that we should have blown Las Cremas out 4-0. But we didn’t.

The Rapids are, by the CCL qualification standards, one of the four best teams in MLS. They come from a league where team values are all north of $300 million; play in a fancy stadium filling with affluent fans. They have players with EPL pedigrees. Their owner is one of the 100 richest people in the United States.

The Rapids underperformed in the Guatemalan first leg, but had just a one-goal deficit to overcome. Just minutes into the game, Comunicaciones player Stheven Robles was sent off with a red card for a reckless and studs up challenge. Los Cremas spent 75 minutes defending with just 10 men.

With all the ostensible advantages, Colorado should have capitalized. They didn’t because despite a ton of possession and a flurry of chances throughout the game, they could not finish worth a damn.

Soccer Rabbi @soccer_rabbi

24 shots. 13 shots on target. 1 goal. Brutal. #Rapids96

More succintly:

Bill @ecualung

@soccer_rabbi We lost by not scoring any of the many, many other chances we had.

We educated and knowledgable #Rapids96 fans knew this was a possibility - going out of a tournament because we lacked goalscoring firepower. We have been discussing the need for a top flight striker all offseason. Hell, many of us have been screaming about the need for a good solid striker since Kei Kamara left, or since Deshorn Brown left, or since Connor Casey left. The Rapids have frequently been an MLS team that was qualitatively pear-shaped: thick and solid at the bottom (re: defense), modest in the middle, pretty unsubstantial up top.

By the numbers, the current striker options are clearly worrisome.

The Rapids scored 36 of their 50 goals last year from the striker, winger, or attacking midfielder positions, which is pretty typical of all soccer teams. That 50 goal mark, I’ll note, was 11th in the league - so good, not great. More of those goals came from wingers (15) than strikers (14) - a thing that is *not* typical. The striker with the most goals, Diego Rubio, played fewer than 2000 minutes and was in just the 29th percentile of all MLS strikers in non-penalty goals per 90 minutes. Additionally, Colorado shedded two players accounting for 10 of those ST/W/AM goals in Cole Bassett and Dominique Badji. The guy tasked with taking over for Bassett is Max Alves, and his goal Wednesday indicated that he might be more than capable of filling Bassett’s shoes. Badji doesn’t really have a replacement - or possibly his replacement is academy player Darren Yapi, who is just 17 years old - which might imply that he’s still a few years away from being ‘ready.’

Soccer Rabbi @soccer_rabbi

We lost Cole Bassett (5 goals in 2021) and Dom Badji (5 goals) and we out performed our xG of 44.17 by 6 (50). So we kinda need him to score 10. Or 15. #Rapids96

blackdog @blackdog1318

@rapids96podcast #askhthl "can Max score 10?"

It is also worth noting that the attackers listed in that chart scored 36 goals on an xG of 35.53, meaning they are pretty much league-average at finishing. Ideally, you either want guys that produce a lot of xG – they get into shooting position *a lot* - and finish at a decent clip, or guys that produce a lot of goals at a rate well above the xG - they get to spots at an average rate, but pick out the top corner better than most. Our attacking guys, as a group, basically do neither.

In lieu of actually getting a proper striker, Colorado played against Comunicaciones with Jonathan Lewis as the starting striker alongside Rubio in the away leg, and Michael Barrios at striker in the home leg. Lewis had very good xG numbers in 2021 as a winger, and perhaps that means he will be playing a lot more centrally in 2022 because Robin Fraser needs him to. Still, the chart above should both answer some of the questions of why we struggled in CCL and create new questions going forward. Is our over-performance of 50 goals against 44.17 xG something we can do again, or will we see a falloff in production this year? Will we be bringing Barrios and Lewis inside more often out of necessity, and if so, will it work? Will someone or *someones (pl)* step up to replace the 10 goals we lost from the departure of Bassett and Badji? Will Diego Rubio ever prove himself to be a good, or at least even an average MLS striker? ²

If we don’t see a satisfactory resolution to those questions, the CCL loss will likely portend the kind of problems we will continue to see for months to come with this team. We’re still a strong team. We’re still a playoff caliber team. But our weakness is as clear as day to everyone with two eyes and an ESPN+ account.

1. I doubt I am the first soccer writer to use this joke, and I admit to feeling shame that I did.

2. I did not ask if we were going to bring in a fancy-pants DP striker. I have asked that question on a monthly basis now for three years. Mama is sleepy now so shhhh, shhhhhh. No more.