Backpass: Off the Schneid
Backpass: Off the Schneid
Colorado produces its first win of the season; we look at how Chris Armas is directing Sam Vines; and a quick word about the latest weirdness with MLS Next Pro.
The phrase ‘off the schneid’ is an old baseball-ism for ending a woeful losing streak or simply scoring after a long scoreless stretch. I’m not entirely sure how often it gets used in soccer lingo, seeing as most soccer commentators try awfully hard to mimic the terminology from England or Spanish speaking countries. I generally appreciate this: ‘golazo!’ is a great word, even if every routine goal is slowly becoming a ‘golazo!’ for some tv analysts. And some British-isms seem not to have been imported at all to MLS. You don’t hear a lot of commenters on Apple TV say ‘fizz it into the mixer’ or ‘the blue touch paper is well and truly lit.’ And I appreciate that, because the former sounds stupid as hell, while the latter makes no sense because nobody knows what ‘blue touch paper’ is or why it might be on fire in the first place.
TL;DR: America has unique sports terminology and dammit our commenters should use it.
Anyhow, the point is, the Rapids are off the schneid for 2024. They got their first win against RSL in the Rocky Mountain Cup away. It was only their second win ever at Rio Tinto / America First Park; the last win was a September 12, 2020 blowout, 5-0. Colorado does hold a 3-1-3 record against RSL at Rice-Eccles Field, their home venue from 2005-2009. We have, on the other hand, 2 wins, 6 draws, 14 losses against RSL At the RioT/AFF. Yikes.
As we discussed on the HTHL podcast, it was something of a funky win. Without the Rapids PK goal off of an RSL handball in the box, the team produced only 0.80 Expected goals; 0.54 xG from open play and 0.26 xG on set pieces.1 Meanwhile, RSL created 1.61 xG on the night. RSL out-possessed the Rapids in their opponents half by 87 passes to 61 in the first half and 150 to 50 passes in the second half. Colorado did well to force turnovers against RSL through the first 45 minutes, but frequently gave the ball right back within ten seconds. Whether that was sloppy play, RSL counterpressing, or bad luck, I can’t say. I suggest perhaps a mix of all three. All in all, it was a win, but not a commanding performance.
Eh, we’ll take it. The handball in the box for RSL felt like the kind of bad break that Colorado endured time and time again in 2023. The wheel of fate is capricious in soccer: the 2023 were exceptionally unlucky, producing an xG of 37.9 but getting only 26 goals while conceding 47.4 xGA and letting in 54 Goals Against. In general, your Goal Differential should be pretty close to your Expected Goal Differential. The 2023 Rapids: not so much. Maybe karma is catching up with us. Karma is, in this case, indeed, a relaxing thought.2
If I were stupid enough to extrapolate any meaning from our first three games out to the entire season, it’s that we are exactly the 8th thru 12th place team we thought we were preseason. A 1-1-1 record translates to roughly 11-12-11 (WTL) on the year. But because we needed an own goal for our Week 2 draw and a handball and some lucky xG results in Week 3, we look a little soft. Extrapolating is, as I mentioned, stupid though. The season will make many twists and turns. We will have home field advantages. We will play heavily-rotated or injury plagued teams that are playing deep into Concacaf Champions or US Open Cup. We will get to play hapless opponents like San Jose and Austin. We will maybe get more clinical in the final third. We will maybe get better at high pressing.
For now, we definitely have a win, and a little confidence. It’s all about confidence, baby.3
Vines Back … is … back
Sam Vines is getting high. And yes, I am talking in soccer terms. (Stay off the gummies, kids, until your brain development is complete.)
In my original piece on the ‘Vines Back’ from back in 2021, I noted that Sam Vines is given the latitude to drift high, and central, really whenever he wants, and that the Rapids rotate and shift and fill to accommodate. Well, folks, Sam is unleashed again.
The first clip I want to show of that is partially at fault for RSL’s goal in this match - but I don’t blame Sam because I think his read is right, and the main problem lies with a Rapids turnover in a bad spot.
If you follow the ball, you’ll see Djordje Mihailovic win a loose ball, which he passes in to a double-teamed Jasper Löffelsend. Matt thinks this is mostly Djordje’s fault. I think blame is more 50-50: Jasper spun right into an easy steal.
But watch again, and this time keep your eyes on Sam Vines – the blue jersey at the far right of the screen. As soon as Sam sees Djordje secure the ball, he is already drifting upfield. He is positioning himself for an aggressive upfield attack in transition. Bombito is stuck trying to defend the ball. Carlos Gomez is wide open and Colorado goes down 1-0.
Before you get mad at Sam, notice that he was essentially asked to do this all game for Colorado. Here he is a few minutes later.
Vines starts with the ball, passes it off to Mihailovic, who pings a big diagonal to Keegan Rosenberry. Sam drifts all the way into a position next to the striker and all the way upfield. That pulls RSL’s right back all the way up field, and opens up midfield space for Loffelsend and Omir Fernandez and Cole Bassett. Colorado doesn’t capitalize here, but I see the wheels turning. Vines avant garde approach to left back forces opponents to react. This will continue to produce results if Colorado can learn how to A) not turn it over in bad spots when Vines is out of position and B) his attacking mates can Vulcan-mind-meld with him and anticipate how to combine with and off with the Colorado Springs native.
I love it. I’m here for it. This is the way forward. Let’s just hope the team can figure out how to adjust and fill and use Sam’s talents to put opponents to the sword.
Don Garber Own Goals
I usually leave Donnie G., MLS’ not-always benevolent overload and commissioner, alone. But whoof is he having a bad week.
There was this, which isn’t on him, except that MLS Next Pro is his baby, so it sort of is:
And then there was this, which is on him 200% because the dumb stuff came right out of his own mouth:
MLS created MLS Next Pro, at least partially, because they wanted a league of teams that were youth oriented, low cost, in the same location as the senior team, and directly branded with their MLS team. And now ‘The Town SC’ is rebranding away from being Earthquakes II … and moving up to Oakland. And at least one other MLSNP team is doing the same. How… how is that any different than LA Galaxy sending its youth players to Vegas or Colorado sending them to Colorado Springs? Control … and money.
And then Garber opens his big fat mouth to complain about US Open Cup and says, almost verbatim “we need more money and more control.”
This is so, so shortsighted.
I’d argue participation in the USOC is a long term gain for MLS, because it grows the MLS brand in small and new markets. He’s paid to maximize profits, but he’s emphasizing short term profit over long term gains and expansion.
Not everything is about short term gain, or immediate, identifiable, monitizable benefit. Many Pittsburghers root for Philadelphia or Columbus in MLS. If the Union and Crew never come here for USOC, will that continue to be the case? It costs money to grow the game in the US at the grassroots level and in non-MLS cities, just like it costs a lot of money to bring in Lionel Messi4 or it costs money to advertise the league on tv. Don Garber’s insistence that Open Cup is bad because it doesn’t make enough money is incredibly shortsighted and selfish.
I know soccer is a business, and I know that Garber believes this is a good business decision. It is not. One could argue that MLS should do what’s right for lower league soccer because they owe it to the rest of soccer to share the wealth. I believe that too, but it isn’t my primary argument. My argument is this: there’s gold in them thar hills, Donnie. The US Open Cup is full of financial potential. You’re looking at it the wrong way. Don’t be stupid. Keep MLS in USOC.
All PKs are (currently, according to fbref) worth 0.79 xG. John Muller quotes the odds of converting a PK at 78% in this article from 2022. He also argues there that PKs are far too lucrative a reward for fouls and handballs in the box, and suggests we go back to the NASL style running shootout.
This song blew up on the instagram in the sped-up version. This slow-as-fuck version is like too slow by a third for me, but it also has that whow-whow 70s porn slap guitar going and that shit is epic IMHO. This song makes me wanna strut the boulevard in a green velour suit with a giant floppy hat. Which is really a poor idea for a middle aged white man.
Is it ever possible to write an MLS article without an explicit mention of Lionel Messi? No. No it is not.
Good stuff, appreciate the analysis of RSL first goal. At first look, it seemed Jasper can't give the ball away there, but you bring up good points that there is a lot more going on.