Backpass: The Over/Under on Gyasi
Backpass: The Over/Under on Gyasi
How many goals? Will it be enough?
True to form, the Colorado Rapids waited to drop big roster move new until Friday afternoon - after every soccer writer covering Colorado has already dropped their weekly column.1 They finally upgraded at striker, after two years of fans screaming ‘we need an upgrade at striker!’
It was not, as some fans hoped, a Zlatan/Messi/Pogba-level signing, but most of us Rapids nerds could have told you that. This is ‘Bargain Buys and Distressed Assets FC’ - players come to the Rapids either from the academy (Cole Bassett, Sam Vines, Seb Anderson), or from taking a chance on a young South American who might pan out (Braian Galvan, Luis Solignac), or by the MLS draft (Kortne Ford, Dominique Badji), or by picking up a guy someone else doesn’t rate anymore (Micheal Azira, Jack Price, Danny Wilson, Diego Rubio). We know who we are.
Gyasi Zardes fits that last model, ‘Guy That His Team Thinks Doesn’t Rate Any More’ - maybe more so than any previous Rapids player. Columbus Crew coach Caleb Porter said it loud and clear in a press conference the other day.
And of course, on our podcast, Matt Pollard asked the best question (Matt ALWAYS asks the right questions. He’s a genius.) . That question was ‘how many goals can we expect from Diego Rubio and Zardes put together? Matt set the over/under at 20. I said ‘under - 16 goals from the two players together.’ And of course, that set my wheels a-spinnin’. That was a gut call. If I look at some evidence, would I make the same conclusion?
The Evidence
Gyasi Zardes had 19 goals in 2018 in 2945 minutes, or 0.58 goals per 90.
In 2019, it was 13 goals, or 0.47 goals per 90.
In 2020, it was 12 goals, or 0.63 goals per 90 (Covid shortened season, smaller sample size, yadayadayada.)
In 2021, it was 9 goals, or 0.52 goals per 90. He played only 1558 minutes last year.
In other words, Zardes’ production from age 27 (in 2018) to 30 (now) has been remarkably consistent, and there isn’t clear evidence of what Porter is talking about - that Zardes is doing less than he used to.
We all know, though, that regular statistics are for mere mortals. We at HTHL Backpass used ADVANCED STATISTICS. Because we are advanced cyborg mutant soccer fans.
So here’s Gyasi’s xG metrics - his Expected Goals numbers, which are based on statistically regressing all of the chances that soccer players take from all the positions and the likelihood that they might score in those positions.
As you can see, Zardes’ Expected Goals has been in steady decline since that spectacular 2018 year to the point that it was just 5.14 last season. But look over a column, and you’ll see that Gyasi banged in 9 goals that year - well-above expectation - for a G-xG of +3.86. That’s the 12th-best rate in MLS last year - up there with big names like Gustavo Bou (+5.22) and Chicharito (+4.13). So perhaps as he ages, he is getting fewer chances, but finishing more efficiently. The 2022 numbers aren’t as good, but then again, they’re based on just 275 minutes of data, which simply isn’t enough to know anything.
It’s a little more useful, though, to look at Gyasi Zardes’ production on a per 90 basis, especially since his minutes have been in decline for the past several years. Here’s Zardes’ xG numbers on a per 96 minutes basis.
He has been remarkably consistent - and the one year he wasn’t, 2021, he had roughly half his normal minutes. Zardes suffered a hamstring injury that kept him out of 3 games in August and September last year. He also missed some time for the Gold Cup and World Cup qualifiers. So to some degree, it seems like Pádraig Smith is hoping Zardes is productive and successful in Colorado - but not so productive that Gregg Berhalter calls him up for the USMNT warm ups. The FIFA calendar shows two more breaks this season: May 30 to June 14 and September 19 to 27.
The Crew moved Zardes on because they have a new hot boi in town: 24 year-old Spanish striker Miguel Berry.
A thing to worry about, of course, is that Columbus offloaded Zardes at exactly the moment before his strength departs from him. As MLS pundit Matt Doyle likes to say, “father time is undefeated.” Zardes will turn 31 years old on September 2nd.
I tried to find some numbers on the productivity declines in MLS according to age, but failed. Here instead are two nice stat graphs I did find - one from the top 5 Euro leagues, and another of the historic best footballers of all time. That first tweet is brilliant, and based on a long analytical paper that is a little too Harvard/Stanford/MIT for me. But if you like to geek out hard, click the bit.ly link.
…
A few notable observations about those charts:
Soccer players retain 80-85 percent of their effectiveness at age 30.
Strikers retain more like 90-95 percent of their effectiveness at age 30.
Modern players (Messi, C. Ronaldo) retain effectiveness past 30 better than players from earlier eras (Maradona [eek-that-decline!], Cruyff).
The wheels typically start to come off at age 32 to 34. Guys like Didier Drogba and Zlatan Ibrahimovic are exceptions.
Stop delaying rabbi. What’s the answer?
Ok, ok. Let’s assume Zardes continues to produce xG at the rate he has produced to date this season: at 0.44 xG per 96. That’s roughly in between his hot, hot production of 2018 (0.59 xGp96) and his lessened production last year (0.29 xGp96).
Let’s say he gets a lot of starts, doesn’t go off to international duty (and come back all exhausted, plus misses those minute with Colorado), and plays around 2200 minutes total. His xG for 2022 would be 10.08 goals. If he continues to bang in goals at the above average G-xG rate he did last year of +3.86, that could give him more like 14 goals. Or if we were to assume that ratio of G to xG stayed constant (i.e. he finishes way above average, every game), he could have even 17 or 18 goals.
That feels unlikely. But I do think, between my conservative estimate of minutes and my realistic, not-that-rosy prediction of xG, Gyasi Zardes will have about 12 goals for the Rapids this year.
If he doesn’t play 2200 minutes for Colorado, that number will be lower. Also, if the Rapids use Diego Rubio in certain ways that make him the prime goalscorer, while Zardes becomes more of a Scottie Pippen complementary-type player, then Zardes’ numbers will be lower while the Rapids ultimately will achieve the same desired result as a team. And while Zardes isn’t known as a 10 and 10 guy (goals and assists) - he had just 6 assists in the past 5 years, and zero in 2021 - under Robin Fraser, he might be used in different ways that produce different results. He hasn’t had Diego Rubio to play with, or Michael Barrios, or Jack Price. Result may vary. Consult your doctor.
But 12 goals. I feel good about predicting 12 goals.
Matt set the over/under on Zard-ubio2 at 20 goals. Rubio had 5 goals in 2021; he’s got 4 already. If he gets 4 more, and Zardes gets 12, whelp, there’s your 20 goals.
To my knowledge, that august list includes me, and only me. The beat writers that regularly cover the Rapids are Matt Pollard (Last Word on Soccer), Brendan Ploen (Denver Post), and Joe Samelson. Joe, Matt, and Brendan doesn’t really do a column per se, just breaking news, previews and reviews. He covered the Gyasi news, but mostly as news and not a column. Check out his stuff here. Matt and Brendan are also must read guys.
Zardes + Rubio. Ain’t I clever?