Backpass: We'll never see another Dom Badji
The diminishing returns of the MLS SuperDraft.
Count me as one of the giant fan boys of the MLS SuperDraft. I’m a sucker for a rags to riches, overlooked, undersized, no-name-kid-makes-good with a pro contract story. I’m also a regular viewer of ACC soccer, now that I live in an ACC city, so I get a front row to seeing good quality college players. When they excel, I get excited for their future potential in MLS.
And yet I’m entirely fine with the Colorado Rapids moves yesterday to trade down in the draft in exchange for cash. The move to drop down netted a good chunk of change that might be used for all sorts of things like a mid-tier foreign player or an additional international slot. I thought it was smart business.
Overall, the move reflected a reality we’ve been witnessing for years - that the MLS draft is producing diminishing returns each year. And as a result, I’m growing increasingly pessimistic about the future of the MLS SuperDraft altogether, at least in terms of providing MLS-caliber talent.
With the growth of MLS academies since 2013 and the overall improvement of American soccer on the global scene1, more and more of our best American soccer players are skipping college and going straight to first team professional soccer. The result is a depleted NCAA that is a sort-of repechage for soccer players; the alternative path of the late bloomer or an un-scouted domestic talent.
I noted on the podcast a few weeks ago that this year’s NCAA draft seemed particularly thin. From my East Coast-bias vantage point, the quality level in the ACC this year was not very good. Nobody really leapt out at me as a Darryl Dike-level talent.2 And there were a lot of very good teams that were long on Sophomores and Juniors.
A better indicator, though, then just my own modestly-trained eye, would be a quick look at the last three drafts to see how many players have had an impact at the MLS level. Among the 2021 SuperDraft class, only four players made a significant number of starts for their teams last year - #1 overall pick Daniel Pereira (25 Games Played for Austin FC), #2 pick Calvin Harris (16 GP with FC Cincinnati), #21 Aedan Stanley (9 GP, Austin FC), and #23 pick Javain Brown (25 GP for Vancouver Whitecaps). All were first round picks. Three of four played for non-playoff teams. In the second round, only five of the 27 drafting teams signed the players they drafted at all - most were released and picked up by squads in the USL.
This is the direction. As MLS gets better and better, more and more NCAA players are destined to join the ranks of teams in the second-division USL. And those USL teams don’t draft NCAA players - they scout them, try them out, and sign them; the same way almost every soccer team in the world gets players.
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The numbers of players drafted by MLS teams that actually make an impact in MLS are pretty similar between the 2021 and 2020 draft. All of the top six picks of the 2020 SuperDraft have played significant minutes the past two years, as Robbie Robinson, Jack Maher, Dylan Nealis, Ryan Raposo, Darryl Dike, and Henry Kessler have all made 20 appearances or more. Kessler became a regular starter for New England on the backline, with 44 starts and over 4000 minutes. Dike banged in goals at a prodigious rate and was sold a few weeks back by Orlando to West Brom for $9.5 million dollars. All that would indicate that yes, there is still certainly value in the MLS SuperDraft. Below the 6th pick, though, only Alastair Johnson (#11 pick) , Zac McGraw (#68), and Luke Haakenson (#80) have made an impact. That’s 3 guys out of 98.
Out of the 2019 draft, there are absolutely some great results - Frankie Amaya, Andre Shinyashiki, Dayne St. Clair, Tajon Buchanon, and Hassani Dotson. But again, that’s five big successes out of 82 drafted players.
Attentive Rapids fans know this pretty well. Andre Shinyashiki is the exception that demonstates the rule - the MLS SuperDraft isn’t very productive. Yes, we plucked Shinya from Denver University and Dominique Badji from the Boston University Terriers over the past few years. But we’ve also picked Peguy Ngatcha and Robbie Mertz and Brian Iloski and Robin Afamefuma and Liam Callahan and Frandtzy Pierrot.3
As a result, they cut the draft down from four rounds to three.
NCAA players have soccering value - but it’s hard to say that the best way to actualize their potential is through the SuperDraft. It is definitely time to considering eliminating the draft and letting teams openly negotiate for NCAA players. It might bring better results and outcomes. And beside the top maybe five or ten players, it’s more evenly match the players and skills at the positions teams want with the reserve team slots that are available. It’d also save the sobering experience of bringing all your draftees to Colorado, kitting them out, and then cutting them two weeks later.
As MLS begins the experiment of their new reserve league, MLS Next Pro, it’ll be interesting to see whether the players they stock their teams will predominately come from the NCAA, the academy, the USL, or abroad, and whether any one of those pathways is a better indicator of success than another.
Dominique Badji was a fourth round pick of the Rapids in 2015; and in his MLS career he’s bagged an impressive 38 goals. He’s in competition for ‘greatest fourth round pick of all time’ with a very short list of MLS players: Michael Bradley, Steven Lenhart, and Jack Elliott. But while the future for MLS will always include lightly regarded or outright discarded players getting their shot with a top-division team, they likely won’t be finding their way there by way of the SuperDraft.
There’s Christian Pulisic signing abroad without ever playing in MLS or the NCAA; Tanner Tessman and Gianluca Busio and Weston McKennie going to Serie A; Josh Sargent signing in England; Tyler Adams and Gio Reyna and Chris Richards playing in Germany.
Thorleifur Úlfarsson out of Duke could turn out to be a pretty solid striker, but his playing style has more in common with Robbie Robinson than Daryl Dike, so it’s a big maybe. I was sure Dike would be a success: he is big and physical in an Emile Heskey kind of way that made me think, ‘this guy is gonna be hard to stop.’
To be fair, Pierrot has actually had a really successful career. For French second division side Guingamp, though. Ngatcha and Afamefuma disappeared off the map; Robbie Mertz is a very good #8 in USL; Iloski washed out in Poland; Callahan briefly played indoor soccer.
I’d argue Nkosi Tafari (14th overall in 2020) has made an impact. He was FCD’s best defender last year and just signed a new contract this offseason. Good write up!