Backpass: Whoops
Colorado starts the year 2024 the same way they started 2023 – with a crushing road defeat to a Cascadia team. What did we learn?
After a rough 2022, and an even rougher 2023, the winter offseason preceding this season was seeded with hope. Colorado brought in five new players – Zack Steffen, Djordje Mihailovic, Jasper Loffelsend, Sam Vines, and Lamine Diack – all of whom were expected to be difference makers for MLS’ second-to-worst team of last season.
There wasn’t much difference in week one for the Colorado Rapids from last year to this year. Again, the Rapids lost to a Cascadia opponent (Seattle in 2023, Portland in 2024). Again, they conceded four goals. And again, they were completely torn apart from one minute to the next.
There are some things we can chalk up as ‘it’s a long season, don’t worry,’ and some other things that we can think of as ‘big uh ohs’ (or worse, ‘fuckfuckfuckfuckfuck’).
For the highlights via Apple, click here. If you can handle that in your fragile state, my friend.
The things:
Finishing was bad
Status: Uh Oh.
Vines had a shot on target at 26’ on a lovely slipped pass from Oliver Larraz that was stopped. Cole Bassett got a chance on the rebound to bang it in off the far post, but was wide. Rafael Navarro had a chance at 28’ that was directly at Portland backup keeper James Pantemis. Meanwhile, Portland’s first three unblocked shots were all goals. And then Sam Vines had an own goal to conclude the first half.
Cole Bassett had a nice chance in the 52nd minute on a free kick but put it high.
Portland’s first half shooting stats were 4 goals on 6 shots with an Expected Goals1 of 0.52. Or really, minus the blocked shots, 4 goals in 4 shots. Portland had 1 ‘Big Chance’ and 0 ‘Big Chances Missed’. For Portland: foot kick ball – ball go in net. That is ridiculous, fluky, and unsustainable. But obviously enviable.
The Rapids produced 6 shots for 0.64 xG in that first half, and a total of 12 shots on the night with an xG of 1.22. Portland, meanwhile, closed up shop in the second half and just let the Rapids have the ball, and produced just 0.02 xG more for a total of 0.54 on the night.
Normally I would say ‘bad night; small sample size. We’ll get ‘em next time, tiger.’ Only, I’ve been noting the Rapid poor Goals-to-Expected-Goals ratio for years; particularly in losing years and with low-goal-total strikers. Navarro, Mihailovic, Bassett and Calvin Harris are either killers when the goal is in their sights, or they aren’t. If they aren’t, the Rapids need to find players who are killers if we want to compete. Navarro, as our central striker, is going to be under particular scrutiny. Over the last 365 days, here’s his fbref radar chart:
A 25 percentile rate for non-penalty goals per 90 is not very good. Antony, the Brazilian winger who joined Portland mid-year in 2023, has a npG per 90 percentile of 94.2 Some of that is also coming from the Portuguese league - which is either roughly equal to MLS, or slightly better than MLS, depending on who you ask.
Navarro is earning $1,100,000 a season. Antony’s contract costs just $400,000.
This needs to get better, fast, or the Rapids have a big problem. I take no pleasure in reminding Rapids fans that the immediate striker alternative to Navarro is Darren Yapi. He has 1,073 minutes over three seasons with the Rapids. Nine starts, 22 shots, zero goals.3
The Sam Vines Own Goal
Status: Don’t Worry
Vines was an offensive threat throughout the game. He closed down his side well. He had a big ‘oops’ moment. It happens. To put things in perspective, hey, at least he own goaled his keeper in a game that had already gone south long before he tickled the twine in the wrong end of the stadium.
The Youngsters Didn’t Look Ready For The Show
Status: Don’t Worry
In something of a surprise to many of us close-watchers of Colorado, Rapids skipper Chris Armas elected to go with three of the younger players: Moise Bombito, Oliver Larraz, and Calvin Harris.
Harris was partially responsible for Portland Goal Number One, as he fails to check his shoulder while Eryk Williams blows by for the ‘late arrival in the box’ cutback pass goal. To be fair, Connor Ronan is probably just as responsible as a d-mid, since he isn’t tight to the passer or in the passing lane and able to intercept.
Moise Bombito is partially responsible for Portland Goal Number Two. There’s literally only one player in the box, and it’s Portland’s Antony, who of course had a brace on the night. In this goal, Antony has posted up Keegan Rosenberry, which means that he needs to be cut off on his front side; sandwiched by the defenders, if you will. Bombito is just totally unaware. He should do better there. (As should Rosenberry. Don’t get posted up.)
It was Armas’ call to play the kids, and I don’t mind it. This is mostly an experimental year. I don’t think this is the team that will hoist MLS Cup at season’s end, and therefor you can try some shit. Bombito is big and fast and physical but his instincts lack polish. He either needs reps to get there, or the team needs to think about his speed asset as a reason to put him at right back. Or he’s got to learn for a little while from the bench.
Ollie Larraz had some positioning issues, but I suspect he was only following orders from Chris Armas. Both d-mids were likely playing higher than they might otherwise because A) the Rapids were pressing a bunch at the start and B) when a team gets behind 2-0 early, they play higher and take more risks because they have to. It makes no sense to bunker deep when you’re losing. We need to see how Larraz plays with 60 minutes of a 0-0 or 1-1 game, or how he plays with a lead, to know anything. However, minus a few nice passes, I didn’t think he was great on the night, and his 1 tackle, 0 interceptions counting stats bear that up.
Chris Armas’ Tactics Failed
Status: Uh Oh
The first two Portland goals required, as I mentioned, fluky-good finishing luck.
The third goal, however, was really disturbing to me.
Here it is, diagrammed out in three pictures:
1)
At minute 29, the Timbers inbound on their own end on a throw in so quick that Apple TV and the camera operator weren’t ready for it.
It’s pretty common for soccer teams to overload the inbound side with defenders. This is a little more aggressive though, and that’s by design. This is a Chris Armas Jesse Marsch Red Bulls inbound counterpress idea: win it back high and score. Forwards must defend aggressively in the Red Bulls system. You force turnovers deep in enemy territory and score easy goals. That way, you don’t need long, complicated build-ups with lots of committed attackers. Be aggressive. Steal goals. Defend competently with numerical advantage (2 d-mids). In theory, I love it. Say what you will about the tenets of Red Bull football. At least it’s an ethos.4
OK, but any press you fuck up real bad leads to easy goals, and the Rapids fucked this up bad. There’s eight players sucked in tight, and I think only Cole Bassett, Connor Ronen, and Rafael Navarro are in the right place. The other five players – especially Andres Maxsø and Keegan Rosenberry (far left) – are in a bad place.
In short, I drew triangles. The triangles are too small. Portland escaped the triangles. Bad things ensued.
2)
Diego Chara has passed to Cristian Paredes (#22). Paredes has Antony wide open. Totally unmarked. This is a tremendous, earth shattering fuck-up.
In a press, the available receiver for the offensive team with the ball is called the ‘outlet’. The outlet needs to be defended, either by being cut off and unreachable, or with simple man-to-man coverage that makes him less dangerous in the unlikely event of a defensive breakdown. The Rapids suffer a first defensive failure because they can’t force Portland to turn over the ball, but that happens. You have to keep your opponent from being able to waltz to the goal unchallenged though if they DO break the press.
3)
Antony receives and runs to goal, cuts back to his inside, and curls a worldie into the top right corner. Teams, occasionally, come back from 2-0. They do not come back from down 3-0. This is the dagger, and it was stupid and unnecessary and ruined my night.
If the Rapids are going to be a high press team, there are always going to be risks, and this is likely not the last time an opponent will break a press and stuff it down our throats.
Chris Armas’ reputation precedes him; and that reputation doesn’t come with a track record of success. I believe he can manage an effective and tactically advanced first division team. But until the Rapids demonstrate that, it’s reasonable to have doubts.
Tiki Taka (Short hits)
5 One
Captain Keegan had a not-great day, but I’m not really convinced it was a major problem, since Antony was exxxtra on the night, and many other Rapids players were bad, and that made Rosenberry look worse overall. Still, here’s a thought:
I watched Löffelsend as a right back for Pitt, and he was great at it. He was fast and a great passer. I think RSL moved him to defensive midfield because they already had a right back and because Löffelsend’s spacial awareness is excellent. I think the Rapids should consider this modest proposal of sending Löffelsend to RB and Rosenberry to play as a DM. This puts the teams leader in the middle of the field; and in a place where pace isn’t such an essential asset.
Two
Supporters know better. They know this team cannot be trusted with ‘give it time’ and ‘this was an anomaly.’ The team hasn’t won a playoff game in eight years, and hasn’t won a trophy in 14. Trust is built slowly, game by game. Trust is not given away.
Three
Matt Doyle and Andrew Wiebe gave Holding the High Line and the ‘Hello Darkness My old Friend’ mug a lot of love on this week’s Extratime podcast.6 I was laughing my fool head off. Greatly appreciated.
The mug came out in 2019, at the very end of the Anthony Hudson era. I really hope we never have cause to reprint that mug.
Four
This Bombito-Vines-Larraz-Vines combo pass gave me so much joy, and we should end on joy.
I believe there will be more of this to come in 2024, fans. I believe.
Game-by-game xG numbers come from fbref and Opta. Their model is a little different from American Soccer Analysis’ model, which I prefer, but is the more widely reported number. The difference, from what I have been told, is primarily on how ‘Big Chances’ is factored in - Opta weighs it more heavily than ASA.
Navarro’s goals are based on 1142 minutes; Antony’s are on 1293 minutes.
He’s due! you might say. Maybe! But ‘kid, the DP stinks, please save our season’ is not a great way to ease someone into a role.
I have called my random end-of-article potpourri section many things. This year we’ll call it tiki taka, which is what the Howler podcast ‘Dummy’ used to call their rapid fire notes section of the end of their dearly departed podcast. I miss Howler; the magazine and the podcast.
Extratime, at one time, was a radio show on Sirius XM, and a podcast, and was also a youtube video show/ and a tv show, and then it just went back to being a podcast. Huh.